WATCH NOW: Land Prices Down 60%: The Condo Market Collapse & Rise of Rental Housing
In this week’s podcast and YouTube episode, I sit down with Jeremiah Shamess, a broker who focuses on development land across the Toronto region. He breaks down how the land market - which hit its peak in 2022 - has unraveled alongside the pre-construction condo sector. With developers no longer buying sites, land values have dropped by as much as 60%.
Jeremiah says most sellers today aren’t willing participants. Roughly two-thirds of the properties coming to market are power-of-sales, as owners who bought at peak valuations can’t carry their financing and are being forced to offload.
We also dig into how the surge of investors over the past decade reshaped what got built. When end users made up nearly half of pre-construction buyers, projects delivered more livable homes. As investors took over, demand shifted toward smaller, micro-style units - and the market followed.
Looking ahead, Jeremiah believes we’re entering a real paradigm shift. With the condo model broken for now, the next wave of development in Toronto is likely to be purpose-built rental rather than owner-occupied housing.
It’s a revealing snapshot of how the development world is recalibrating and where Toronto’s housing supply is headed next.
John Pasalis is President of Realosophy Realty. A specialist in real estate data analysis, John’s research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been utilized by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Have questions about your own moves in the Toronto area as a buyer, seller, investor or renter? Book a no-obligation consult with John and his team at a Realosophy here: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn
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