GTA Housing Market Update – October 2026
Higher interest rates and economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the Toronto area’s housing market in October. Home sales fell 7% from last year. The condo market was the weaker of the two, with sales down 10%, while house sales were down 6%.
Fixed mortgage rates moved higher this fall, and through October the market was expecting the Bank of Canada to start hiking its policy rate, which it did last week. Those higher rates pushed many buyers to the sidelines, and we are seeing that reflected in the sales statistics. House sales last month were 23% below their ten-year average for October, and condo sales were 32% below.
Prices are lower too. The average house price was down 2% from last year, and the average condo price was down 6%.
Sellers have pulled back alongside buyers. There were 15% fewer homes available for sale at the end of October than a year earlier. Because the decline in active listings outpaced the decline in sales, the market is slightly tighter today than it was last year, with months of inventory at 4.0 for houses, down from 4.5, and 5.7 for condos, down from 6.0.
The one segment bucking the broader trend is the market for low-rise houses in the City of Toronto. House sales in the city were up 1% from last year and average prices were down just 1%. With 3.4 months of inventory, against 4.3 in the suburbs, the city is far closer to a balanced market, and 30% of houses in the city sold for more than their list price last month, compared to just 19% in the suburbs.
What could change the picture? Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump have recently indicated that they are close to finalizing the terms of a new trade deal. A deal would bring some clarity after two years of economic instability caused by the US administration’s policies, but I don’t expect buyers to rush back into the housing market because of it.
A trade deal may lift optimism, and possibly sales volumes, slightly in early 2027. But where interest rates are, and where the market expects them to go, will have an equally big impact on consumer sentiment in the new year. If rates continue to trend up, a trade deal alone may not be enough to push buyers off the sidelines.
Monthly Statistics
House Statistics
House sales (low-rise freehold detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in October 2026 were down 6% compared to the same month last year.
New house listings in October were down 12% compared to last year.
The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was down 16% in October compared to the same month last year.
The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell, given the current level of demand? The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.
While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market is heading.
The MOI for houses decreased to 4.0 in October.
The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s list price was 23% in October, down from 24% in September.
The average price for a house in October 2026, $1,232,747, was down 2% from the same month last year.
The median house price in October was $1,050,000, down 2% over last year.
The median is calculated by ordering all the sale prices in a given month and then selecting the price at the midpoint of that list such that half of all home sales are above that price and half are below that price. Economists often prefer the median price over the average because it is less sensitive to big increases in the sale of high-end or low-end homes in a given month, which can skew the average price.
Condo Statistics
Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in October 2026 were down 10% compared to the same month last year.
New condo listings were down 12% in October over last year.
The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was down 14% over last year.
Condo months of inventory decreased to 5.7 MOI in October.
The share of condos selling for over the asking price was 13% in October, unchanged from September.
The average price of a condo in October was $635,981, down 6% from last year. The median price was $552,000, down 7% from last year.
Regional Trends
Houses
Toronto and York were the only regions where house sales held steady, both up less than 1% from last year. Sales fell 8% in Peel and 16% in both Durham and Halton. Average prices were down in every region except Halton, where they rose 1%, with the largest declines in York, down 7%, and Durham, down 6%. New listings fell everywhere, led by Peel, down 18%, and Halton, down 16%. Months of inventory is lower than last year in Toronto, Peel and York, unchanged in Halton at 4.1, and higher in Durham, up from 3.9 to 4.5.
Condos
Condo sales fell in all five regions. The drop was largest in Durham, down 25%, and smallest in Peel, down 1%, with Toronto down 12%. Average prices were down 5% in Toronto and down 8% to 11% in Durham, Peel and York, while Halton was flat. New listings fell in every region, by 23% in Halton and 18% in Durham. Months of inventory is lower than a year ago everywhere except Durham, where it rose from 4.9 to 5.6, and York remains the slowest condo market in the region at 6.6 months.